About 20 years ago, Jack Lessinger, a
retired University of Washington professor,
introduced the term penturbia to readers of
the Atlantic Monthly. Penturbia was the
fifth great region of colonization in the
United States. This followed the movement
into the central and southern colonies, then
into the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys,
then to the great industrial cities, and
next into the suburbs of America. Penturbia
was beyond the normal commuting range of big
U.S. cities. It included areas replete with
farms, forests, lakes, and rivers. In
penturbia, there were plenty of
opportunities for fishing and golf.
In 1990, Lessinger followed this up with a
book, Penturbia: Where Real Estate Will Boom
AFTER the Crash of Suburbia (SocioEconomics,
Inc.). He classified every county in the
United States according to its appeal to
those wishing to flee cities and suburbs.
Lessinger missed the mark with his
prediction of a real-estate crash in the
suburbs. But his forecast about the rising
popularity of rural real estate has come
true in recent years, particularly in B.C.
Just ask Rudy Nielsen, the New
Westminster–based president of the NIHO Land
& Cattle Company Ltd. For the past 40 years,
Nielsen has been selling recreational
properties across the province. Nielsen
defines B.C.'s penturbia on the basis of how
many hours it takes to reach it by car from
the Lower Mainland.
"Prices on land go by the hours you have to
drive," Nielsen told the Georgia Straight.
"The four-hour circle is very high-priced."
He says a waterfront lot on Nicola Lake,
which takes about four hours, could cost
$800,000. However, a similar lot in
Vanderhoof, which is 11 hours away, is
available for only $60,000.
On July 17, Statistics Canada revealed that
B.C.'s population has aged significantly in
recent years. According to newly released
data from the 2006 census, more than half
the population was over the age of 40.
There are big implications for the
recreational-property market, which lures
older buyers. Nielsen provides a profile of
the typical person interested in penturbia:
a blue-collar worker who bought a small
house 30 to 35 years ago in Vancouver,
Burnaby, or New Westminster for about
$35,000. Since then, the value of that
property has risen close to $1 million.
"He wants to get away from the traffic,"
Nielsen said. "He wants to get away from
people honking horns at him."
So he sells his house and moves to Kamloops
or Vernon. He ends up with another $600,000
to $800,000 in his pocket, which supplements
his pension quite nicely. And he buys an
aluminum boat and a motor home.
Nielsen said this theory of the rising
popularity of penturbia has been shaping how
he has run his business for years. And the
numbers appear to bear it out. Besides NIHO,
Nielsen also owns a company called Landcor,
which tracks every property sale across the
province.
Five years ago, Nielsen said, there were
90,000 such transactions across the
province, involving $19 billion worth of
property. In 2006, sales reached a record
$54 billion on 160,000 transactions. In
2006, 94 percent of the sales involved
British Columbians buying property from
other British Columbians.
"Just under $2 billion was from Alberta,
which was about a 45 percent increase from
the year before," he said. "The market has
shifted from Calgary to Edmonton and Red
Deer."
Nielsen estimated that buyers from the
Calgary area have snapped up about 90
percent of the recreational properties in
the Invermere and Radium Hot Springs areas,
which are within easy driving distance
through the Crowsnest Pass. Edmonton buyers
are focusing on the Central Interior.
Now, there is a shortage of available
property in B.C.'s penturbia. Nielsen
explained that there are 1.7 million land
titles in B.C., and that 1.3 million of
those are for standard residential
properties. That means there are only
400,000 land titles for recreational,
commercial, and industrial properties across
the entire province. The Crown owns almost
95 percent of the land in B.C.; the rest is
privately owned.
Nielsen said government officials should
make more sites available. "They should bear
in mind there are more blue-collar workers
than white-collar workers," he said.
"They've got to keep their prices in line so
it's not only for the very, very wealthy."
After 40 years in real estate, Nielsen
hasn't lost his common touch.